Looking ahead to the WC2010 :-)

2010 isn’t that far away (Finn says as he lies to himself) but let me add to Jan’s excellent preview by going into a little more depth on Norway. Please forward my scouting report to Van Marwijk:

Norway:
Norway is not as strong as they were mid to late nineties (WC94, WC98). That golden generation is gone. The last remainder of those days were Ole Gunnar Solskjaer (Man Utd) who retired, and is now in charge of Man Utd reserves. He is just about to finish his UEFA International coaching badge, and is being groomed to become a manager somewhere.

Norway nearly qualified to EC08 instead of Turkey (1 point difference) primarily due to two howlers of the goalkeeper, but we all saw the Turkish “luck” in EC08, so that shouldn’t surprise anybody. It is in a way similar to Holland in that it is a team in transition defensively. There are two young keepers vying for the no 1 spot, Jarstein (Rosenborg) and Opdal (Brann Bergen, last seasons domestic league champs). They are talented, but relatively unproven national team wise.

Systemwise, Norway play 4-4-2 or sometimes 4-3-3 (against perceived weaker opposition). They seem to prefer 4-4-2 most of the time.

The back four is historically the strength of Norway. On the left side you have John Arne “owngoal” Riise (former Liverpool and now Roma). Despite not having the best of season with Pool this year, still a solid player. Lots of experience (CL winner), and his biggest strength is his ability to come forward not mention his hammer of a left foot. Also his ability to deliver tremendously long throw-ins, makes a set-piece threat(Norways biggest strength) similar to a corner. His weakness is that he isn’t the most talented footballer in the world and sometimes get caught out and doesn’t backtrack well. The center back Brede Hangeland (Former FC Copenhagen, now at Fulham) is perhaps one of two best players on the team. He is 27, 1m 95 cm (6ft 5 inc) small and very strong in the air. They project him to become the new team captain at both Norway and Fulham. Alongside with him in EC08 qual played Erik “Panzer” Hagen (Zenith St. Petersburg and Wigan). With a nickname like that, no need to describe him any further. He will be 35 in 2010, so I think he will not be part of the campaign. Behind those 2, there are noone really stepping up to the plate, a bit like Oranje really. The right back & right midfield has been the team’s achilles heal. A number of players have been rotated in those positions, with no one looking to be the clear winner. Which means for Oranje, fast transition from the left side will be the very key to beating Norway. Going through the middle is not likely to work, and anything in the air will be a waste of time.

Midfield is also a problem for Norway. The strength is on the leftside with Morten Gamst Pedersen (Blackburn). He is also the set piece expert. He has scored several times in the English Premiership directly from corner!! Can use both feet and his left is pin-point accuracy. Has got a lot of bad press for not playing up to club standards for the NT. However between him and Riise, Norways left side is pretty strong, and with both of them very attacking minded, Norway like to start to attack and come forward on the left. Center midfield is Martin Andresen (Valerengen Oslo, formerly Wimble don and Blackburn), the curreent team captain. He will 34 in 2010 and is also currently playing manager. I doubt he will be in the campaign as he is too busy at home, and with his age I expect him to retire from international football shortly. He is a decent player, nothing great in my book, and there are some interesting young talent coming from behind. The coach has experimented in a few friendlies with different players. Same goes with right side. A complete revolving door. He used 4 or 5 different players in that position during the actual EC08 qual, and with the RB also being in flux, resluted in a very bad situation.

Up front you have a classic Norwegian lineup, but with a little “twist”. John Carew (Aston Villa, and formerly Valencia, Roma, Besiktas and Lyon), probably the best player in the team. Could also become the new captain. He is also 1m 95 (6ft 5in) small, but he is also very fast for his size. He is strong as an ox, and should have gotten many penalties but he looks like a bully, makes defenders even look small and he didn’t attend the Cristiano Ronaldo School of Diving, so there you go. Fantastic header of the ball. Along with him they often use Steffen Iversen (Rosenborg and former Tottenham). He is “only” 6ft 1, but scores a lot of goals in the air). To mix it up, they also use Erik Nevland (Fulham and former cult-hero at Groningen in Holland) who is small, but a very calm and clinical finisher. He well underway to becoming a cult hero in Fulham too, having scored some extremely important goals coming off the bench to help them stay up in the Prem. He will be up there in age in 2010, so not sure about what his or the coach’es plans are.

Coach: Aage Hareide. A former central back that got 50 caps for Norway. He played a decade and as captain for Norwich (when they were good), and also got a couple of season with Man City. He is a very charismatic and likeable fellow. Unlike MVB, his people skills are very excellent, and the players just love him. I met him once, and I fully say he is very down to earth and respectful. He gave me the feeling that we had known each other for years! On club level he was the former coach of Rosenborg and Brondby(Denmark). Some people say he is too relaxed and gives his players too much freedom, and there may be something to that. After failing to qualify for EC08, he promised to change many of those things, we’ll see if this is true or “the bark is bigger than the bite”. He is a good coach in my and most peoples opinion.

Summary: Norway is a team Holland should beat. However as Jan points out, their syle is one that does not suit Oranje well. Norway is big, physical, and strong. The team consists mostly of either current or former English Premier league players, that knows how to give and take a few. It is a “clean” team, nothing dirty, but certainly hard and Robben better get loads of that cotton on his legs for this one. Norway is not very creative with a dangerous playmaker. Extremely dangerous on set pieces and in the air. Hangeland goes up on corners which gives you 3 players well over 6 ft. in the box. I could be wrong but something like over 55% of all the goals in EC08 they scored came from set pieces. Norway have questionmarks in goal, and on their right side. Oranje should exploit that to the fullest with their left side. Also speed overall for the Norway defense is not great. So key to win, quick transition to attack, shut down Norways left side, Morten Gamst Pedersen so he cant deliver the pinpoint crosses to John Carew, be extremely careful on set pieces and Oranje should be just fine.

After all that, do I get honorary Dutch citizenship?

Posted from  United States

Holland climbs 5 spots to no 5 in the latest FIFA World Raking!!!

As can be expected after the EC just finished, those teams are climbing.

Spain is now number 1, ahead of Italy (go figure that one out), German 3, Brazil 4th, Oranje 5th, ahead of the former No1 Argentina.

http://www.fifa.com/worldfootball/ranking/lastranking/gender=m/fullranking.html

Posted from  United States

Wow that’s a great review finnster. When will we get the rest of the reviews? You know, about the rest of the countries in the last qualifying group…

Posted from  Estonia

Can someone explain how the Fifa ranking system works to me? Why was Argentina ahead of Italy? What are the teams ranked against?

Jess, the factors taken into account in ranking teams are :Match result(win-draw-loss), Match status,Opposition strengh,regional strengh, number of matches considered per year,importance of matches… The strengh of the UEFA to that of the South American Football Confederation is 1.00 to 0.98.Also the South American Football Confederation has a lot more weaker teams than Europe. Also only the last four years of competition are considered, with more points given to matches during to the last 12 months (and so Europe has an advantage over South America this year because of the Euro 2008+Qualifications to Euro which are all taken into account).
If you want more technical details then check out:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_World_Rankings

or if thats not enough…more examples of calculation:

http://www.fifa.com/mm/document/fifafacts/rawrank/ip-590%5f10e%5fwrpointcalculation%5f8771.pdf

Posted from  United States

Brazil and Argentina competed in the final of the Copa America in 2007. That was their last major international competition, and Brazil ended up winning by 3:0. That was the major reason why Brazil is ahead of Argentina, with 4 and 6 respectively in the ranking. By the way, our Netherlands are 5, and separating the two powerhouses of South America.
Note also that during the WC 2006, both Brazil and Argentina were knocked out by European teams in the quaterfinals, with Italy and Germany finishing ahead of them.
Many European teams have gone up in the ranking because of the Euro.
Spain was 4th in the previous ranking, and by winning the Euro have skyrocketed to 1st place.

Posted from  United States

I would be excited about WC2010 if not for the fact that I’m turning 40 that year and it depresses me.

I’m hoping I’ll get to cheer for both Holland *and* Canada. However, as perennially is the case, we’re in a qualifying group with Mexico. We got a good record against Jamaica and I’m not worried about Honduras, so perhaps we’ll get a place in the WC (after 20 years).

i like world football elo ratings instead of fifa ranking

29/June/2008 elo rankings

1 Spain 2049
2 Argentina 1999
3 Netherlands 1998
4 Brazil 1987
5 Italy 1985
6 Germany 1945
7 Croatia 1897
8 France 1895
9 England 1893
10 Mexico 1871

Posted from  United States

i see no real threat in this qualifying group, if there’s one thing V.Marwijk can’t do wrong, it must be qualifying for the WC.

Posted from  Netherlands

Michel - what are the elo rankings?

Posted from  Canada

@ Caleb
elo rating is base on a team strength relative to its competitors after 30 matches. calculating team rating is base on expected result of the match, result of the match, weight of the tournament(wc, euro, qualifiers, friendly….) old rating, and goal difference of the match.

Posted from  United States

Based on the qualification group, if the Netherlands does not dominate the other teams, then they do not deserve a place in the WC. This is a comparatively weak group, so qualification, as others have suggested, should be an expectation, not seen as some type of remarkable achievement.

As to the Netherlands #5 ranking by FIFA, another example of how benign those rankings truly are. What do they mean? Why do we care? Holland is not the 5th best team in the world, by any stretch of imagination. Within the top 20 or 25–absolutely, which based on its size is remarkable enough. This ranking is like an overpriced stock which, in time, will fall once reality checks in.

Posted from  United States

Bob, I don’t think Jan underestimated the opponents, and he rightly concluded with “Holland will most likely enter this group as the faves and will have everything to lose when the concentration isn’t there.”
Don’t forget, Scotland is ranked 16 by FIFA(England is 15), so it’s not a certainty that Holland can defeat Scotland. As Jan has pointed out, we have never convincingly won against Norway, and their team style of play does not suit ours the best. So maybe we could easily make draws against Norway,if we are not careful. In the EURO, the Dutch were expected to beat Russia, but could not. So we cannot underestimate these opponents, but we will kick their butt(that’s what I think) because Marjwick has no other choice but qualify for the WC 2010, that is his first priority as a coach.God forbids a repeat of 2002!!!
As for the rankings, I don’t buy them at all. I don’t understand why Scotalnd is 16; Portugal is ranked lower than the Czech Republic.
The rankings have to do with past performances, they tell nothing about future performances. Coming into the EURO, both Italy and France were in the top 5, while Holland was in the top 15. But we all know what happened to France and Italy.

Posted from  United States

@Bob:

Agree that FIFA ranking is irrelevant, too much weight given for “frequency” of matches instead of quality. With that said, curious why you don’t think Oranje is the #5 best team in the world? Whom would you rank above us?

After EURO, I’d probably rank Spain, Brazil and Germany (maybe Portugal and Argentina in the mix) above us …. we did beat France and Italy convincingly …. so #5 doesn’t look “overpriced” to me. Then again, I’m using the irrelevant ranking rationale. In my mind, Netherlands will always be ranked #1 (ok, maybe #2 after Brazil) at all time.

–H

Posted from  United States

Netherlands is like Brazil without f*cking up the important games.

Posted from  Estonia

Lets not get too far ahead of ourselves here (like we did in EC). Oranje has to qualify first, and ,yes, on a piece of paper it is foregone conclusion. But so was beating Russia. Scotland beat France twice, including in Paris. Gave Italy a hard time too (which is why they are lying 15th in the rankings). Norway should have killed off Turkey which went deeper into the EC08 than Oranje did. By the way Norway beat Argentina not too long ago with Messi and all playing. Don’t be fooled to think they will just sit back watch total football and change shirts and ask for autographs in the end.

The one thing I have learned over the years is that football is a funny old game and do not EVER take anything for granted. Incidentally, Macedonia drew with England in EC08 quals, and plays all top teams tough. After all, all they have to play for is pride, which they do very well. Given the performance against Russia, maybe Oranje actually can learn something from countries like this. Iceland is not a bad team anymore either. Lots of players in the Prem plus Eidar Gudjohnson in Barca. Again a big strong physical team, not the sort Oranje likes to play. Oranje were supposed to do very well in 2002 remember? You have to play those games first before we worry about getting to the final in 2010.

Oranje should win the group hands down. But I just don’t think it will be such a walk in the park as some of you think. All it takes is 10 men behind the ball and one lucky set piece, especially with our defense, and things may not look so rosy anymore. Not one single team of these has anything but upside playing the famous Dutch. The “best” team in EC08. Everyone wants to be on the team that beat Oranje. I am afraid this will be tougher than I’d like it to be.

Posted from  United States

The FIFA rankings always puts more weight on frequency..most purists consider it a joke anyway. ELO ratings are at least a little more realistic, but in the end they are just a hit parade of teams, you like some and dislike others. To me Brazil and Argentina will always be in the top 3-5. Then whoever is doing well in Europe can fill up the rest. Spain deservedly where it is.
During a world cup I always look at the odds bookmakers put on teams. As they are the people who put their money where their mouths are. Then you can really see the world rankings - for real!

Posted from  Singapore

The Macedonian match up should be a interesting one from a personal note.
My nieghbor Mike is Macedonian, he is a former Pro player in the Yugosolavian league 20 years a go. He banged up his knee at 20 years. “I was like Marc Overmars” I had speed,but after the operation it was not the same, anyhow to make a long story, longer, him and I chew soccer over a few brews every week. The man is a wealth of knowledge and a joy for brain pickers like myself. He loves Holland, as most people do.

n.b.

Canada is ranked 77 by FIFA The have advanced to the next stage of World Cup Qualification. The play in a group that includes Jamaica.
Go Canada Go…Jonathon deGuzman, you would have made a great addition with the team.

@ Van Basten,

Thank you for your explaination! I will for sure check out those links.

Mel Gibson??????

Hi, HedonistiX!! Long time no speak!

Looking forward to the two matches against the Dutch. No doubt we’ll share a few beers.

Flure - Tartan Army Footsoldier.

Posted from  Netherlands