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Hugo Borst: Oranje winning the WC? Fat chance…

spain

Hugo Borst’s column in the AD

People ask me often – while the WC is still seven months away: “Do you think Holland will win the cup in South Africa?”

Does God exist? Is there life on Mars? Does Oranje Angel have a Brazilian wax?

There’s a good chance, but how do we know?

I personally think we have a slight chance of winning the world title. A very slight chance. There’s 32 nations competing, so statistically we start with something like a 3% chance. Then there’s a number of really poor nations. New Zealand won’t win it, for instance. The real number of nations with a chance is probably 20 or 25. Which means Holland has a 4,5% chance.

Our odds improve with the following situations:

+ Van Persie plays center forward instead of right winger ( +5%)

+ Mathijsen indeed is the rock in defense that Van Marwijk thinks he is ( + 2,5%)

+ Van der Sar is our goalie ( +3%)

+ Van Marwijk sorts the hierarchy out (+3%)

+ Van Persie holds on to his current Arsenal form ( +5%)

+ The refs aren’t against us ( +3%)

+ The refs actually are for us (+3%)

+ Sneijder doesn’t get an inflamated back when he lasers the name Ramona of this back ( +1,5%)

+ Van Bommel is alert when an opponent wants to get away from him ( +2,5%)

+ We practice taking penalty kicks ( +4%)

+ Van Bommel doesn’t get red-carded ( +3%)

+ Oranje plays disciplined ( +5%)

+ Sneijder doesn’t get an inflamation when he tattoos the name Mourinho over Ramona’s tattoo ( +1,5%)

+ Oranje decides not to get into a streetfight against South European or South American nations ( +3%)

+ Yolanthe and Sylvie stay in another hotel ( +1%)

+ Oranje stays away from whores and groupies ( +2%)

+ Frank de Boer sometimes whispers some tactical advice in Bert’s ear ( +4%)

+ Oranje doesn’t need to play with black mourning armbands ( 0,5%)

+ Van Bronckhorst doesn’t get to play a fixed right winger ( +2%)

+ Van der Wiel stops using Twitter ( +1%)

+ Van Persie and Sneijder decide who takes which free kick beforehand ( +3%)

+ Van Persie and Sneijder don’t get into fights on the pitch, in the hotel, in the dressing room or in the disco ( +5%)

+ The players don’t start to hate each other after spending six weeks together ( +5%)

+ Oranje doesn’t meet Germany in the knock out phase ( +4%)

+ Oranje doesn’t meet Spain in the knock out phase ( +4%)

+ Oranje doesn’t meet Portugal in the knock out phase ( +4%)

+ Oranje doesn’t meet England in the knock out phase ( +4%)

+ The players won’t get the 1974 finals virus: arrogance and self-absorption

So, do I think Holland could win the title? See above…

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Displaying the most recent 25 comments from a total of 88 comments.

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By fares | November 21st, 2009 at 10:24 am
Top

great!

By Mario | November 21st, 2009 at 12:22 pm
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Gee…Why Dutch players get injured every other week?. Can somebody explain me that?. Now we have Babel, Robben, Van Persie, Sneijder, Ruud,etc.

By fares | November 21st, 2009 at 1:33 pm
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drenthe handed a starting spot in tonight’s real madrdid match against santander. vaart on the bench,as always.

By Jeff | November 21st, 2009 at 2:20 pm
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Thanks Jan for your comments. Interesting that you had an inside track with Marco. I don’t want to belabor the point but psychology is the main Dutch weakness and I frequently wondered why they don’t rely on sports psychologists more often as they do in the US.
@Ferenc, I am neither a fascist or a communist, I am just saying that we should think positively that’s all. I am not putting a gun to anyone’s head as far as I know.
By the way I agree with Jan’s suggestions regarding Henry and the France-Ireland shameful outcome. Finnster, yes take Benitez and make him french coach, brilliant idea!
How serious is Babel’s injury? Again better injured now than in 6 months.

Posted from United States United States

By Bart | November 21st, 2009 at 3:50 pm
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Vaart got subbed on :O baha 88th minute.

Posted from Canada Canada

By Alex | November 21st, 2009 at 6:35 pm
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Drenthe actually played good for an entire match, but hold on with yelling he needs to be called up next time, we’ll see.
The injuries have nothing to do with nationality, loads of top players get injured often these days, Ribery, Torres, Lampard, Gerrard, Crissie Ronaldo, Bosingwa, Sneijder and Even Zlatan stuggles with injuries quite a bit.

Posted from Netherlands Netherlands

By Alex | November 21st, 2009 at 6:56 pm
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Heitinga lost 3-0 to Man. United, played as a midfielder, couldn’t do much for the results but tried, the Everton defence looked nowhere, he’s not a midfielder though.
Pretty disrespectfull substitution for V.d.Vaart, good first touch, which was coincidentally also pretty much the last touch. He really should just go to a different club, HSV, Valencia… In the back of my mind I have this fear that he just might not have the level where he’ll be an absolute regular at the Liverpools or Arsenals of this world, Although looking back at the EC the V.d.Vaart-Sneijder tandem was mouthwatering at times.

Posted from Netherlands Netherlands

By susanne | November 21st, 2009 at 7:13 pm
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@Alex, I have the same feeling about VdV. He is such a good player though. Sneijder is better at a pure number 10 (when he doesn’t need to defend much) but I have a weakness for VdV. Also as a personality. You don’t see him ever frustrated and moaning like Sneijder get’s. So I hope he finds a team like Valencia this winter. That would work.

Posted from Netherlands Netherlands

By Rami | November 21st, 2009 at 7:20 pm
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Im even more disappointed that after Van Nistelrooy’s interview where he set a national call-up as his goal for 2010, he doesnt even get selected for RM!!

i watched the game, drenthe played well, van der vaart disrespected as usual (love his fighting spirit though), but Van Nistelrooy not even selected!!!!!
wow
and that Raul played like shit when he came on. all RM forwards are actually playing like shit. Benzema, Higauin and Raul. Any other place and Ruud would have had a fair chance already to prove himself.

What a gang bunch that RM
Im glad Van Nistelrooy is being no where near as stubborn as van der vaart about leaving the club. Im hoping he goes to Roma.

Posted from Norway Norway

By Jan | November 21st, 2009 at 7:20 pm
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I saw Drenthe and De Jong play and they both were pretty good. In particular De Jong. His block tackle on Babel was outrageous! Great player, Nigel. As if he’s a totally different person than the show pony he was at Ajax.

@MO: I know Maduro had his Ajax 1 debut behind him already, but he wasn’t really a regular or a key player for Ajax. Marco told the press he selected Maduro because he knew him from Ajax 2 and based his decision on that experience. I’m just saying: sometimes a player can have the goods in skill, but you have to take his progression into account. He was 18 years old, had two massive tournaments behind him (meaning no summer break in two years) and had just arrived at Ajax 1, when Marco declared him the next big thing… It was not smart. That’s all I wanted to say about it.

@Jeff: Don’t have too many insides on him. Marco was extremely ambitious as a player and not the nicest personality. But that would probably apply to 90% of top athletes all over the world. He respected players who could play at his level and was negative to the weaker ones. He was smart and serious about his game but also a bit spoiled. Frank Rijkaard was a much more sympatico character than Marco. The thing with players like them, they’re spoiled like crazy as youngster by their parents and friends and at the club they’re being groomed as the next big thing. It does screw with your mentality, I’d say. Only highly grounded players like Bergkamp, Litmanen or Kuyt know how to deal with all that. You can’t blame Van Basten for thinking he was God’s gift to football.

By Jan | November 21st, 2009 at 7:24 pm
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Another thing I”d like to say about our chances. Comparing our current squad to the 98 one and then concluding that we won’t win this time because our current players aren’t as good as the 98 players is a bit too shortsided, I guess…

It doesn’t work like that, I’m happy to say. There’s other forces in sports. Otherwise you could simply analyse the WC selections and declare Spain the winner, Oranje runners up, Brazil third and England fourth. Or something like that.

Our 1974 was the best team ever and they didn’t win a prize. In 2004 the Greeks took the cup but they most definitely weren’t better spot by spot than our 2000 squad.

So here’s my rules for winning a title:

You need all the typical things (skill, tactics, physical fitness, etc) and then you need:

1. You need a team, not so much a selection of great players

2. Mental strength and focus are as important as skills.

3. You need 22 players to win it. Not eleven starters.

4. The “vibe” in the camp is crucial and the team manager is responsible for that.

5. You need luck. In the draw, referee decisions, etc.

By Jan | November 21st, 2009 at 7:25 pm
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I’d say our 1974 and 2000 teams lacked 2. when the going got tough.

In 1998 we simply lacked 5.

By susanne | November 21st, 2009 at 7:41 pm
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@Jan, those 5 points I agree upon. The thing is, you can’t control it. You can’t make that top 5 happen if you are just perfect. (since there is no such thing) That’s why people want to see Castelen, because he is so damn good(..) No, we don’t need Castelen. We need that top 5 at the right moment.

Posted from Netherlands Netherlands

By Michel-Olivier | November 21st, 2009 at 8:46 pm
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susanne
brazil 2002 team had all five.

Posted from United States United States

By Jan | November 21st, 2009 at 10:29 pm
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Oh and let me add the coach is clearly responsible for the first four points…

I remember the 1990 WC very well: our best group since 1974: Marco, Ruud, Frank, Wouters, Schip, Winter, Koeman, Breuk, etc etc…

And bloody Beenhakker and his monastry in Yugoslavia!

By Carlos | November 21st, 2009 at 11:43 pm
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In 1990 we were sooooo confident we already had postage stamps printed – World Champions – 4 of the top 5 players in the world, 6 out of 10. Milan trio Wouters and Koeman. Politics killed it.

Posted from Singapore Singapore

By Mario | November 22nd, 2009 at 12:39 am
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@Carlos:

Is it true that in 1990 there was a computer simulation in which Holland appeared as World Champion in all of them?.

By Carlos | November 22nd, 2009 at 2:43 am
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Mario – no idea but we were such outrageous favourites it was embarrassing. Think Marco had just won the Ballon D’Or, Gullit and Rijkaard were close 2nd/3rd I think, however the nearest English guy was Gascoigne who received 3 votes (MVB 187 or something like that). England had no stars – they lost in the semifinal ! Tells you something about all the dumb bitching that goes on here.
Was never into computer games or simulated football games but everything and everyone pointed toward Holland in 1990 2:1 favourites, Brazil 4:1.

Posted from Singapore Singapore

By Mario | November 22nd, 2009 at 3:09 am
Top

Carlos:

Your answer says it all. Very cocky Oranje lost because they had no spirit and passion to win. Because that team was the best of that World Cup player by player. That team had to be a team for 1990 and 1994 but in 1994 Van Basten and Gullit didn´t not play and then the rest is history.

Again: Holland´s biggest rival is Oranje!!!.

By Alex | November 22nd, 2009 at 6:06 am
Top

If you look at the teams we had in the past, we should already have at least 2 world cups in our bag. ‘74, ‘78,’90, how about ‘98?

Posted from Netherlands Netherlands

By Jan | November 22nd, 2009 at 6:37 am
Top

Agree Alex. Four wouldn’t have been too silly. There’s an article in this archive here somewhere on Oranje 1990. I think it wasn’t the players’ ego’s so much, but the horrible handling of the situation by the KNVB.

By ferenc | November 22nd, 2009 at 9:53 am
Top

the 1990 world cup was one of the biggest disappointment in my life. i expected gold and instead we were eliminated very early. apart from the 1974 team the gullit-rijkaard-van basten-ronald koeman oranje was the best ever. johan should have been the coach and i havew lots of respect for michels but he made one of the biggest mistakes of his life by backing beenhakker.
i remember before the world cup in italy a pornfilm was made about how italy would win the world cup – even in this film oranje was their opponent in the final and some beautiful girls had affairs with gullit and co the night before the final (it was an integrant part of the italian strategy :D ). it also means that oranje was really considered as top fav,lets say like spain now. (or even more.)

Posted from Hungary Hungary

By ferenc | November 22nd, 2009 at 9:55 am
Top

i keep saying that oranje should have one 4 times the world cup because in 1974,1978,190 and 1998 our team was the best in the world. the funniest thing would be if a much weaker side won the world cup next year. hopefully it will happen. unfortunately greatness doesn’t always mean victory.

Posted from Hungary Hungary

By ferenc | November 22nd, 2009 at 10:27 am
Top

should have won

Posted from Hungary Hungary

By Lucas | November 22nd, 2009 at 11:30 am
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ferenc you can add 2002 to that list, although we didn’t make it we had an excellent team with lots of options.

Posted from United Kingdom United Kingdom

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