Netherlands

Hugo Borst: Oranje winning the WC? Fat chance…

Hugo Borst’s column in the AD

People ask me often – while the WC is still seven months away: “Do you think Holland will win the cup in South Africa?”

Does God exist? Is there life on Mars? Does Oranje Angel have a Brazilian wax?

There’s a good chance, but how do we know?

I personally think we have a slight chance of winning the world title. A very slight chance. There’s 32 nations competing, so statistically we start with something like a 3% chance. Then there’s a number of really poor nations. New Zealand won’t win it, for instance. The real number of nations with a chance is probably 20 or 25. Which means Holland has a 4,5% chance.

Our odds improve with the following situations:

+ Van Persie plays center forward instead of right winger ( +5%)

+ Mathijsen indeed is the rock in defense that Van Marwijk thinks he is ( + 2,5%)

+ Van der Sar is our goalie ( +3%)

+ Van Marwijk sorts the hierarchy out (+3%)

+ Van Persie holds on to his current Arsenal form ( +5%)

+ The refs aren’t against us ( +3%)

+ The refs actually are for us (+3%)

+ Sneijder doesn’t get an inflamated back when he lasers the name Ramona of this back ( +1,5%)

+ Van Bommel is alert when an opponent wants to get away from him ( +2,5%)

+ We practice taking penalty kicks ( +4%)

+ Van Bommel doesn’t get red-carded ( +3%)

+ Oranje plays disciplined ( +5%)

+ Sneijder doesn’t get an inflamation when he tattoos the name Mourinho over Ramona’s tattoo ( +1,5%)

+ Oranje decides not to get into a streetfight against South European or South American nations ( +3%)

+ Yolanthe and Sylvie stay in another hotel ( +1%)

+ Oranje stays away from whores and groupies ( +2%)

+ Frank de Boer sometimes whispers some tactical advice in Bert’s ear ( +4%)

+ Oranje doesn’t need to play with black mourning armbands ( 0,5%)

+ Van Bronckhorst doesn’t get to play a fixed right winger ( +2%)

+ Van der Wiel stops using Twitter ( +1%)

+ Van Persie and Sneijder decide who takes which free kick beforehand ( +3%)

+ Van Persie and Sneijder don’t get into fights on the pitch, in the hotel, in the dressing room or in the disco ( +5%)

+ The players don’t start to hate each other after spending six weeks together ( +5%)

+ Oranje doesn’t meet Germany in the knock out phase ( +4%)

+ Oranje doesn’t meet Spain in the knock out phase ( +4%)

+ Oranje doesn’t meet Portugal in the knock out phase ( +4%)

+ Oranje doesn’t meet England in the knock out phase ( +4%)

+ The players won’t get the 1974 finals virus: arrogance and self-absorption

So, do I think Holland could win the title? See above…